# Critical Hit Rate (%)

#### mikeyjamez

• Member
• Characters: _Jamez_
• Faction: 0FkGiven
Hi All,

This is my attempt at making a contribution to the community by sharing my observations on critical hit rates (%). For all the statistics nerds; the critical hit rates follow a binomial distribution. This explains why people with 50% crit rate can still not do critical hits after hitting the target 5 times.

In this post I will;
• Outline the likelihood (probability) of the number of critical hits at the varying crit rates after hitting a target five (5) times.
• Use theoretical base damages that decreases by 25 points for every % increase in crit rate.
• I will show the probability of total damage outputs after having hit a target five (5) times using the theoretical base damages.

Note that;
• Five (5) hits were used to accommodate maximum number of hits per second for APS classes and it would be enough for DPH and DPS classes.
• Base damages per class differs and is the reason a theoretical number is used just to simulate how the process works.
• GOF critical hits were not accounted for but ought to be considered for melee classes when considering total damage dealt. I neglected this because I created the model primarily for my psychic.
• The distribution of critical hits is the same for all classes.

So let's get into it.

80% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 80% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 4 VAR(X) 0.8 Base Damage 4250 Critical hit damage 8500

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 0% 21,250.00 1 1% 25,500.00 2 5% 29,750.00 3 20% 34,000.00 4 41% 38,250.00 5 33% 42,500.00

70% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 70% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 3.5 VAR(X) 1.05 Base Damage 4500 Critical hit damage 9000

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 0% 22,500.00 1 3% 27,000.00 2 13% 31,500.00 3 31% 36,000.00 4 36% 40,500.00 5 17% 45,000.00

60% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 60% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 3 VAR(X) 1.2 Base Damage 4750 Critical hit damage 9500

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 1% 23,750.00 1 8% 28,500.00 2 23% 33,250.00 3 35% 38,000.00 4 26% 42,750.00 5 8% 47,500.00

50% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 50% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 2.5 VAR(X) 1.25 Base Damage 5000 Critical hit damage 10000

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 3% 25,000.00 1 16% 30,000.00 2 31% 35,000.00 3 31% 40,000.00 4 16% 45,000.00 5 3% 50,000.00

48% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 48% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 2.4 VAR(X) 1.248 Base Damage 5050 Critical hit damage 10100

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 4% 25,250.00 1 18% 30,300.00 2 32% 35,350.00 3 30% 40,400.00 4 14% 45,450.00 5 3% 50,500.00

45% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 45% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 2.25 VAR(X) 1.2375 Base Damage 5125 Critical hit damage 10250

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 5% 25,625.00 1 21% 30,750.00 2 34% 35,875.00 3 28% 41,000.00 4 11% 46,125.00 5 2% 51,250.00

40% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 40% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 2 VAR(X) 1.2 Base Damage 5250 Critical hit damage 10500

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 8% 26,250.00 1 26% 31,500.00 2 35% 36,750.00 3 23% 42,000.00 4 8% 47,250.00 5 1% 52,500.00

38% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 38% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.9 VAR(X) 1.178 Base Damage 5300 Critical hit damage 10600

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 9% 26,500.00 1 28% 31,800.00 2 34% 37,100.00 3 21% 42,400.00 4 6% 47,700.00 5 1% 53,000.00

35% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 35% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.75 VAR(X) 1.1375 Base Damage 5375 Critical hit damage 10750

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 12% 26,875.00 1 31% 32,250.00 2 34% 37,625.00 3 18% 43,000.00 4 5% 48,375.00 5 1% 53,750.00

32% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 32% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.6 VAR(X) 1.088 Base Damage 5450 Critical hit damage 10900

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 15% 27,250.00 1 34% 32,700.00 2 32% 38,150.00 3 15% 43,600.00 4 4% 49,050.00 5 0% 54,500.00

30% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 30% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.5 VAR(X) 1.05 Base Damage 5500 Critical hit damage 11000

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 17% 27,500.00 1 36% 33,000.00 2 31% 38,500.00 3 13% 44,000.00 4 3% 49,500.00 5 0% 55,000.00

28% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 28% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.4 VAR(X) 1.008 Base Damage 5550 Critical hit damage 11100

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 19% 27,750.00 1 38% 33,300.00 2 29% 38,850.00 3 11% 44,400.00 4 2% 49,950.00 5 0% 55,500.00

26 % Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 26% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1.3 VAR(X) 0.962 Base Damage 5600 Critical hit damage 11200

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 22% 28,000.00 1 39% 33,600.00 2 27% 39,200.00 3 10% 44,800.00 4 2% 50,400.00 5 0% 56,000.00

20% Critical Hit Rate

 Critical hit chance (P) 20% # of hits (N) 5 E(X) 1 VAR(X) 0.8 Base Damage 5750 Critical hit damage 11500

 # of critical hits (X) Probability (Binomial Distribution) Total Damage Dealt 0 33% 28,750.00 1 41% 34,500.00 2 20% 40,250.00 3 5% 46,000.00 4 1% 51,750.00 5 0% 57,500.00

I hope this info will prove useful when trying to determine which stats to aim for. Thanks for reading.
Dare to be different ^.^

#### MMMMMMMMMMMM

• serious gamer
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lol nerd

#### mikeyjamez

• Member
• Characters: _Jamez_
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lol nerd

LOL! Best way to beat every1 is understanding game mechanics
Dare to be different ^.^

#### BumleBee

• Enemy.123
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My iq too bad cant understand halp plz

#### Masuta

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• Never seen anyone merge and disband as frequently as Ambition (6 times in 1.5month, 9 if void)
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in short crit is nice

05.15♡

#### Aleх

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#### Anselmo

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bumpppp

#### mikeyjamez

• Member
• Characters: _Jamez_
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in short crit is nice
Don't be naive. Balance is important and at a certain point increasing crit rate makes no sense.
Dare to be different ^.^

#### Saxysta

• `Huntress
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nice post
Make Fudo cry and leave epw :3

(ノ｀Д´)ノ彡┻━┻

Most importanly, take his account of >_<

Isora is mine

#### Rikku

• hates pvp.
• This sin
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this does not account for class balancing, which isn't public data.

#### Buffy

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