Why would you multiply the chances of each piece? That would mean you're trying to get all of them in a row with 1 roll each. Obviously with the reroll system you can roll more than once and it would be ridiculously easy to get individual parts if it was possible to get them all in a row
You need to find other ways to spend your free time
dont need to gear to kick ass#undergearsince2k12
This, you don't have to be perfectly geared to kill, outskill or even tank these days. You're playing against macros and scripts ffs
I am statistically more likely to cast a presidential tie-breaking vote in the US than to ever have the gear I would want on EPW, according to my calculations against a UC Berkeley Study. See the study here: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/vote.pdfThe probability for acquiring the gear with the exact attributes one wants is represented by the expression of joint probability in [1.1].[1.1] Pr(Gi = 1) = Pr(Ci = 1 ∪ Pi = 1 ∪ Bi = 1 ∪ Si = 1 ∪ Wi = 1)Where Gi represents the gear which is ideal to the individual i, Ci is the collapsed form of the individual conditional probability of the chest piece with the ideal stats to the individual i, and Pi, Bi, and Si ,Wi represent the same logic as Ci but for the pants, boots, sleeves, and weapon pieces, respectively. Each of these may be expressed similarly as shown in expression [1.2].[1.2] Pr(Ci = 1) = Pr(Mi = 1 | mi…n = 1)= Pr(Mi = 1 ∪ c,1 = 1 ∪ mc,2 = 1 ∪ mc,3 = 1 ∪ mc,4 = 1) = Pr(Ci = 1)We know from the EPW odds guide of rolling certain stats what the probability of certain combinations of gear stats are. I make the assumption that an individual wants the following stats as their idea set of gear, and I ignore the probability of honing to max stats:Pr(Pure attack weapon) = 0.2222 * 0.0645 * 0.0645 * 0.0645 * 0.0645 = 0.00000384576Pr(Pure channel sleeves) = 0.0386 * 0.0386 * 0.0386 * 0.0386 = 0.00000221998Pr(Pure magic boots) = 0.0772 * 0.0772 * 0.0772 * 0.0772 = 0.00003551969Pr(Pure reduced phydmg chest) = 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 = 0.00000006244Pr(Pure reduced physical damage pants) = 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 = 0.00000006244Pr(GSarahco = 1) = 0.00000384576 * 0.00000221998 * 0.00003551969 * 0.00000006244 * 0.00000006244 = 0.0000000000000000000000000000011822959Someone in the United States has a 1 in 60 million chance of casting a 1:1 deciding vote on the next President, which equals: 0.000000066666667.Given the gear specifications above, I am more likely -- statistically -- to decide a tie-breaking vote for the United States president than get the gear I want.
