I am statistically more likely to cast a presidential tie-breaking vote than...

[Sarahco]

I am statistically more likely to cast a presidential tie-breaking vote in the US than to ever have the gear I would want on EPW, according to my calculations against a UC Berkeley Study. See the study here: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/vote.pdf

The probability for acquiring the gear with the exact attributes one wants is represented by the expression of joint probability in [1.1].

[1.1] Pr(Gi = 1) = Pr(Ci = 1 ∪ Pi = 1 ∪ Bi = 1 ∪ Si = 1 ∪ Wi = 1)

Where Gi represents the gear which is ideal to the individual i, Ci is the collapsed form of the individual conditional probability of the chest piece with the ideal stats to the individual i, and Pi, Bi, and Si ,Wi represent the same logic as Ci but for the pants, boots, sleeves, and weapon pieces, respectively. Each of these may be expressed similarly as shown in expression [1.2].

[1.2]  Pr(Ci = 1) = Pr(Mi = 1 | mi…n = 1)

= Pr(Mi = 1 ∪  c,1  = 1 ∪ mc,2  = 1 ∪ mc,3  = 1 ∪ mc,4 = 1)

= Pr(Ci = 1)

We know from the EPW odds guide of rolling certain stats what the probability of certain combinations of gear stats are. I make the assumption that an individual wants the following stats as their idea set of gear, and I ignore the probability of honing to max stats:

Pr(Pure attack weapon)  = 0.2222 * 0.0645 * 0.0645  * 0.0645  * 0.0645 = 0.00000384576
Pr(Pure channel sleeves) = 0.0386 * 0.0386 * 0.0386 * 0.0386 = 0.00000221998
Pr(Pure magic boots) = 0.0772 * 0.0772 * 0.0772 * 0.0772 = 0.00003551969
Pr(Pure reduced phydmg chest) = 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 = 0.00000006244
Pr(Pure reduced physical damage pants) = 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 * 0.0154 = 0.00000006244

Pr(GSarahco = 1) = 0.00000384576 * 0.00000221998 * 0.00003551969 * 0.00000006244 * 0.00000006244 = 0.0000000000000000000000000000011822959

Someone in the United States has a 1 in 60 million chance of casting a 1:1 deciding vote on the next President, which equals: 0.000000066666667.

Given the gear specifications above, I am more likely -- statistically -- to decide a tie-breaking vote for the United States president than get the gear I want.

[Madaa]

[GIGADEV]

  

[Ada Wong]

Ok Einstein.

[THE RT2PM TOPOLM]

Can you do my turbomachines course work for epic coins?

[Joshie]

Nice, looks like you are a math genius Waw!

[Smor]

You need to find other ways to spend your free time

[Bill Dipperly]

i got the best gear possible on 2 characters in an other mmo game (not dead) within a month on an official server with 100000000000000000000 more content to do, you guys are still struggling on a deadgame private server

[Lill 🌶]

i got the best gear possible on 2 characters in an other mmo game (not dead) within a month on an official server with 100000000000000000000 more content to do, you guys are still struggling on a deadgame private server

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/378880775116029962/493189462915022848/unknown.png

[Burdette]

Why would you multiply the chances of each piece? That would mean you're trying to get all of them in a row with 1 roll each. Obviously with the reroll system you can roll more than once and it would be ridiculously easy to get individual parts if it was possible to get them all in a row

[Martylka]

I have an impression now it's really definetely more difficult to get good stats with rolls. They tell us that chances are higher but truth is while having 999PE now you can get NOTHING good while before that 4 row sets/5 row weapons when you had 999PE you were almost sure you'll get 2x int wrists, if not with one stack then with next one almost for sure. I tried 3 times with such stacks (3x 999PE) on weapon and I didn't get even 3x def lvl weapon once. Is it normal anyhow...? I don't think so.

[RandomDude]

u have higher chances to get good gear here then to get gf irl 

[Craig]

People still rerolling in 2k18? Solution = fixed stat gears, yw.

[Shinaring]

Is that before or after the 96+ hours you spend farming shards in FR?

[''']

Refer to my gear for instructions on defying the odds