Epic Perfect World

Who was correct?

Once upon a time, three players, Inzanity, Petrol, and Psynix, were found guilty of fake bidding tws. Agatio had selected one of them at random to be pardoned. The warden, EvilTouch knew which one was pardoned, but was not allowed to tell. Inzanity begged the warden to let him know the identity of one of the others who was getting banned. "If Petrol is to be pardoned, give me Psynix's name. If Psynix is to be pardoned, give me Petrol's name. And if I'm to be pardoned, flip a fair coin to decide whether to name Petrol or Psynix."

The warden told Inzanity that Petrol was getting banned. Inzanity was pleased because he believed that his probability of getting pardoned had gone up from 1/3 to 1/2, as it was just between him and Psynix. Inzanity secretly told Psynix the news, who was also pleased, because he reasoned that Inzanity still had a chance of 1/3 to be the pardoned one, but his chance had gone up to 2/3.

Who do you think was correct? Inzanity or Psynix?

Eternalagony

Offline ᴰᴱᴬᴰ†

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Sleep

who came and banned them all

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Offline Drive

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Sleep

who came and banned them all
LOL. :-X
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Offline Balnazar

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Once upon a time, three players, Inzanity, Petrol, and Psynix, were found guilty of fake bidding tws. Agatio had selected one of them at random to be pardoned. The warden, EvilTouch knew which one was pardoned, but was not allowed to tell. Inzanity begged the warden to let him know the identity of one of the others who was getting banned. "If Petrol is to be pardoned, give me Psynix's name. If Psynix is to be pardoned, give me Petrol's name. And if I'm to be pardoned, flip a fair coin to decide whether to name Petrol or Psynix."

The warden told Inzanity that Petrol was getting banned. Inzanity was pleased because he believed that his probability of getting pardoned had gone up from 1/3 to 1/2, as it was just between him and Psynix. Inzanity secretly told Psynix the news, who was also pleased, because he reasoned that Inzanity still had a chance of 1/3 to be the pardoned one, but his chance had gone up to 2/3.

Who do you think was correct? Inzanity or Psynix?
LOOOOL! Finally got to read a good "Once upon a time...." story, after a long time! xD
Agatio, EvilTouch, Alexypk, Magestic, Chocolate, Dream and Suns were all slain by Balnazar. Keeping scores?

Offline HellishKitty

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Sleep

who came and banned them all


Dad was correct

by confusing them all  :-[

Offline Sideris

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Wait wait I've seen this somewhere already. Just, wherereee ngggh.
I know it's a mathematical paradox.
♡ 18.03.2011 ♡

cevans1290

Wait wait I've seen this somewhere already. Just, wherereee ngggh.
I know it's a mathematical paradox.
Yeah. some noob ( legit new person ) posted it.

Offline USS Iowa

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Inzanity obviously.

WasteDump / MajorLeague(Greatest) / Frozenterror / UrbanLegend / USSMissiouri / USSArizona / Maravich / WorldPeace / Caesar

"Heroes are remembered. Legends never die."
Well, it may seem intuitive that Inzanity was correct at first, but after considering below:

Pr(Inzanity pardoned AND Petrol's name was said) = P(Inzanity pardoned)*Pr(the coin decided to name Petrol)
=1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6

Meanwhile,
Pr(Psynix pardoned AND Petrol's name was said) = Pr(Psynix pardoned) since the warden must name Petrol in this case
=1/3 = 1/6+1/6

Above are the probabilities for ONLY the cases where the warden said Petrol's name to Inzanity.
The total probability of the warden telling Petrol's name = 1/6+ (1/6+1/6) =1/2

Inzanity was curious about his chance of getting pardoned after the warden said Petrol's name to him,
but Pr(Inzanity pardoned AND Petrol's name was said) = 1/6

Therefore, P(Inzanity pardoned AND Petrol's name was said)/P(Petrol's name was said)
= (1/6)/(1/2) = 1/3

This also means Psynix's chance of getting pardoned had gone up to 2/3 from 1/3, since Inzanity still had 1/3 to be pardoned, and he had to be in the remaining 2/3 of getting pardoned.

So, Psynix was correct, but only after Inzanity told him this GREAT news. Psynix's chance wouldn't have had gone up if Inzanity didn't ask the warden that question though.  :D



Last Edit: June 25, 2014, 02:01 pm by IDuKnow

Offline Sideris

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Do I get any prize for guessing it was a mathematical paradox?  :normal-3:
♡ 18.03.2011 ♡

Do I get any prize for guessing it was a mathematical paradox?  :normal-3:
Sure, here's your prize:  :pig-33:
 :normal-37:

Offline Mercy

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Hahaha Petrol noob get banned, only know fake bid for win.

Offline Sideris

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Sure, here's your prize:  :pig-33:
 :normal-37:

If it's red then I take it.  :normal-23:
♡ 18.03.2011 ♡

Online Aleх

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Dad was correct

by confusing them all  :-[
    I was there? that means i did my job
and yeah Inzanity was corect i think


Ying♥