# Boredom hits me again (updated)

#### アイドンノウくん

• Old Player
So I was bored, then I saw the FIFA event hosted by GMs. Basically, you have to bet the top 3 winner countries right to get prizes. So, a question hit me up and that is how many possible ways you can form your bet (1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place).

Assuming we bet before any of the teams is eliminated:
The answer is 32*24*16 = 12288. There are 12288 ways you can form your bet.

Now you might ask what if you just need to guess the top 3 teams right regardless of their ranks, how many ways your bet can be formed?

I was also curious about the total possible combinations for the final match: X vs Y
How many possible sets are there for the final match?

How many possible combinations are there for the final 4 teams?

If you were to guess the rank of each of the final 4 teams, how many ways your guess can be formed?

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Back to the event, suppose the GMs decide to give prizes to anyone who guesses at least 1 team and its rank correct (which I think is going to happen, otherwise it will be too hard to win the prizes). How many ways can that happen?

The answer is 1+1523+69 = 1593. There are 1593 ways your guess will have at least 1 team with the correct rank which matches the final result of the game.
That also means there are 10695 ways that your guess does not have any correct matches.

So, generally speaking, out of 12288 total combinations that your guess can have, 1593 of them have at least 1 team with its rank matches with the final game result, and 10695 of them have none.

For simplicity, assuming we choose the teams with equal chances:
The probability that you win something = 0.1296
The probability that you win nothing = 0.8704

Based on this result, it's better not to take part in this event as it obviously favors the house side (GMs).
But, of course, in reality you will have more info and favor some of the teams based on their performance. So, you won't choose the teams with equal chances. And that could affect the expectation.

Last Edit: June 17, 2014, 08:41 pm by IDuKnow

#### ᴰᴱᴬᴰ†

• FASHAN for LAIF
• Characters: Oleander
I still think you're a secret agent

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#### 엔젤ღ

• k-pop'ers and yaoi fan ❤
• Characters: AngeliqMyst
math.

why this cruelty qq
AngeliqMyst - Sage Mystic

yaoi<3

#### アイドンノウくん

• Old Player
I still think you're a secret agent
Aww...I bet you have watched too many movies or TV.

#### ᴰᴱᴬᴰ†

• FASHAN for LAIF
• Characters: Oleander
Aww...I bet you have watched too many movies or TV.

YES! you know that I watch too many TV shows and movies

definitely an agent...

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#### Ky

• Forum Veteran
i lost approximately 69696969 brain cells while reading this

#### アイドンノウくん

• Old Player
LOL...you guys are exaggerating...It's not that hard to understand really.  :sad:

#### ᴰᴱᴬᴰ†

• FASHAN for LAIF
• Characters: Oleander

Signature by Lonicera
✞ If my wings should fail me, Lord. Please meet me with another pair✞
（  ㅅ  ）      α===B

#### Guardian

• Train insane or remain the same
• Characters: Guardian
• Faction: Myrmidon
If you were to guess the rank of each of the final 4 teams, how many ways your guess can be formed?

Thats the only thing I didn't understand but it's probably because I'm not that interested in football, therefore fail to understand the question lol.

Mind explaining?

#### アイドンノウくん

• Old Player
Thats the only thing I didn't understand but it's probably because I'm not that interested in football, therefore fail to understand the question lol.

Mind explaining?
It is similar to the FIFA event on forum where you have to guess the top 3 winner teams with their correct ranks, but instead of top 3, it now requires you to guess the top 4 teams (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th). In this case, there are 98304 ways to form your guess. It is not that much related to football, more to math, especially combinatorics. Hope this helps.