Epic Perfect World

Statistically speaking, what is the chance at getting +6 Attack Level on a cape?

Offline Danidv

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As listed by Agatio - http://epicpw.com/index.php?topic=35595.msg524534#msg524534 - the chance of getting a single +2 Attack Level is 1.5%, or 1.5 times out of every 100 attempts, so what's the chance on having all three stats be +2 Attack Level in the same roll?

The way I see it, that makes it 1.5 out of 300, or 1 out of 200, since you can't get something "one and a half times".

If this is true, then that'd mean the average cost of getting x3 +2 Atk. lv. is 200x200, or 40 000 EC, no?

Also, what did Agatio mean by 1.5%?
1.5% every stat (with three of those per roll, rather than two like with rings, belts and necklaces) or 1.5% off every roll?
Depending on the answer and assuming my math is right, it'd be the difference between 40 000 EC and 120 000 EC.

darkfe321

Offline Subz

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1.5 x 3 = 45%
is this guy for real LOL WHAT AN IDIOT
1.5% = 0.015 x 0.015 x 0.015 = 0.000003375 = 0.0003375% chance have fun
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Offline Danidv

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1.5 x 3 = 45%
1.5% means 1.5 out of 100, not 1.5 out of 10.
Also, the way you did it, the chance of getting x3 +2 atk lv is actually higher than a single +2 atk lv.
You have three branchings:
Stat 1 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
Now, assuming you were in the 1.5% for the first stat, you need to repeat this two more times to succeed, so:
Stat 2 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
And the third time:
Stat 3 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
So you need to hit those 1.5% three times in a row, which the chance for that, the way I see it, is 1.5 times out of every 300 rolls.

Offline oke

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1.5% means 1.5 out of 100, not 1.5 out of 10.
Also, the way you did it, the chance of getting x3 +2 atk lv is actually higher than a single +2 atk lv.
You have three branchings:
Stat 1 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
Now, assuming you were in the 1.5% for the first stat, you need to repeat this two more times to succeed, so:
Stat 2 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
And the third time:
Stat 3 -
            98.5%  - random
            1.5% - +2 Atk. lv.
So you need to hit those 1.5% three times in a row, which the chance for that, the way I see it, is 1.5 times out of every 300 rolls.
na, 1.5 x 3 = 45%

Offline Danidv

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is this guy for real LOL WHAT AN IDIOT
1.5% = 0.015 x 0.015 x 0.015 = 0.000003375 = 0.0003375% chance have fun
Shouldn't it be 0.15, rather than 0.015?
1.000 is 100%, so 1.5% should be 0.15, right?
If so, by that logic, it comes off as
0.15 x 0.15 x 0.15 = 0.003375 = 3.375%
which doesn't seem exactly right

Edit: My bad, 0.15 would be 15%.

Offline LMNTRX

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100/( 0.015*0.015*0.015*100)= 297k rolls around 60mil ec. Dont know it thats the math i assume it is same calculations for chances on gears

kitty stew

Shouldn't it be 0.15, rather than 0.015? 1.000 is 100%, so 1.5% should be 0.15, right? If so, by that logic, it comes off as 0.15 x 0.15 x 0.15 = 0.003375 = 3.375% which doesn't seem exactly right Edit: My bad, 0.15 would be 15%.
.15 is 15% dumbdumb

if you want a decent comparison

sin/archer chest piece odds for -int are 1.47%

odds for 3x are 1 in hundreds of thousands

I'd suggest going back to high school math if you believe you should get 3x in a few hundred rolls from a 1.5% chance

Offline Danidv

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.15 is 15% dumbdumb

if you want a decent comparison

sin/archer chest piece odds for -int are 1.47%

odds for 3x are 1 in hundreds of thousands

I'd suggest going back to high school math if you believe you should get 3x in a few hundred rolls from a 1.5% chance
I know, sounds like something's not right which is why i'm asking
Last Edit: July 18, 2016, 01:56 pm by Danidv

kitty stew

I also want to point out that 1.5% chance does not mean you have 1.5% chance to get a single 2-atk per roll

the odds of getting only one 2-atk is closer to 5% if you factor it by rolls (1.5 chance is calculated 3 times since it's rolling 3 stats)

odds go extremely lower when you start factoring additional atk-2 because of the multiplicative factor

anyone who bets should know odds as well, though they use different ratios

Offline Danidv

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I also want to point out that 1.5% chance does not mean you have 1.5% chance to get a single 2-atk per roll

the odds of getting only one 2-atk is closer to 5% if you factor it by rolls (1.5 chance is calculated 3 times since it's rolling 3 stats)

odds go extremely lower when you start factoring additional atk-2 because of the multiplicative factor

anyone who bets should know odds as well, though they use different ratios
What would you say is the chance on +6 Atk. lv. then? obviously it's in the hundreds of thousands as well, but what would be the correct value?
1 in 297k like it was mentioned before?

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What's the math behind getting 4 attack levels, statistically speaking? 

Offline Arashiwf

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What's the math behind getting 4 attack levels, statistically speaking?
4 times
[22:22:51] Erelim: as clearly posted a few times now, you can like everyone else, see how many views somoene has
[22:22:53] Marko: 300 views
[22:22:54] Marko: 115 likes
[22:22:56] Marko: 6000 views
[22:22:57] Marko: 115 likes
[22:23:06] Marko: unexplained
[22:23:25] Mark: only 9 subs actually got registered
[22:23:28] Mark: as actual humans
[22:23:46] Mark: and only 1.5k views
[22:24:01] Erelim: clearly still expecting answers without giving them
[22:24:03] Mark: ''views the last 30 days''
[22:24:08] Mark: - 1.5k
[22:24:17] Marko: he just gave you
[22:24:17] Mark: your last vid was 4 days ago and alrdy got 6k views
[22:24:19] Mark: amazing right
[22:24:19] Marko: your answer
[22:24:40] Erelim: a ss of me instead of my gf?
[22:24:48] Mark: we're talking about you?

dumbfuck