Average tries of getting 2x chan on arcane armor

[Persas]

Someone did the math?

Like i know the odds of getting int on gears i just dont know it about chan.

Can someone tell me how many average tries it takes to get 2x chan on AA?
Also how many tries average for 1x wrist

[Pelnar]

Took ten rolls for me to get a double chann top. I would consider myself lucky, were this character not an assassin.

[Persas]

chan on LA is around 7%, on AA its only 3%

stay on topic please

[Pelnar]

0.18%,  if it's 3%

How I reached that:

You have a 3% chance to have your first slot get chann.
You have two shots at getting a second chann stat, making it a 6% chance to get one chann in a second slot.
Therefore, six percent of the three percent of rolls that have one chann will have a second chann stat
6% of 3 is 0.18. So you have a 0.18% chance of at least 2x channeling.

My math could be wrong. These could be the wrong steps. I don't know. I'm tired. xD

[☠EvilTouch☠]

You guys should note that this is basicly just luck based....there isn't a 100% formula that will tell you how many rolls you need to get this or that.
For example lets say you think you need 1700 rolls on a Wrists to get 3x channelling, you could very well try 3.000 times and still not get it simply due to the random factor on the formula.
This % to Rolls numbers isnt accurate at all.

[Persas]

Ofcourse you can get it in 1 role or in 100000 roles.

The point is there is always a guideline to see how much it will take on average.

Saying its just luck based is just not true. There is math involved, altough the end result might be luck

[Persas]

0.18%,  if it's 3%

How I reached that:

You have a 3% chance to have your first slot get chann.
You have two shots at getting a second chann stat, making it a 6% chance to get one chann in a second slot.
Therefore, six percent of the three percent of rolls that have one chann will have a second chann stat
6% of 3 is 0.18. So you have a 0.18% chance of at least 2x channeling.

My math could be wrong. These could be the wrong steps. I don't know. I'm tired. xD

And yes your math is wrong.

[Pelnar]

Percent is chance, not a guarantee. I've been told that it's pretty easy to get 2x int on Sin wrists. 500-600 rolls later, the most I've gotten is 1x int. I've also had people tell me that they would pay 100k EC to get stats on their weapon like I have on my Seek sword because they've tried X000 number of times for GoF 3x Atk and not gotten it, where it was my first roll. There's always variation.

It could take one roll, it could take a million. Results will vary. But it's still good to know the average amount to expect to have to roll this.

I figured it might be. My math teacher was terrible at explaining this stuff, and I just have to wing it. Sorry for the not-correct answer. xD

Edit: I just ran that by a more math-oriented person who is fully awake and they said that it's 0.18% too. Anyone else want to do the math here?

[QUITTTTTEEDDD]

Percent is chance, not a guarantee. I've been told that it's pretty easy to get 2x int on Sin wrists. 500-600 rolls later, the most I've gotten is 1x int. I've also had people tell me that they would pay 100k EC to get stats on their weapon like I have on my Seek sword because they've tried X000 number of times for GoF 3x Atk and not gotten it, where it was my first roll. There's always variation.

It could take one roll, it could take a million. Results will vary. But it's still good to know the average amount to expect to have to roll this.

I figured it might be. My math teacher was terrible at explaining this stuff, and I just have to wing it. Sorry for the not-correct answer. xD

Edit: I just ran that by a more math-oriented person who is fully awake and they said that it's 0.18% too. Anyone else want to do the math here?

10k dama and I can't get ur stats on my dagger ((

[Pelnar]

10k dama and I can't get ur stats on my dagger ((

x=10. See? I can math. I found X.

[Zapherian]

And yes your math is wrong.

i think the math is correct. if chance of getting 1 chan is 3% then chance of getting 2x is 0.18% which means 1 out of 556 tries in average.
and yes Its totally luck based you can get at 1st try or you may never get.
And of course there is math in this. Why to bother releasing the chance % data if it was totally luck based.

[Plague]

use binomial probability formula:

let's say A is the event of obtaining double channeling on certain piece of armor. probability that event A happens will be P(A).
to calculate P(A) you need to use binomial formula:



in your case, n will be 3 and k will be 2. p will be probability of obtaining single channeling in a single trial (therefore, the percentage shown on pwdatabase), q will be equal to 1-p.

is binomial coefficient and is equal to  

however, this is the formula for the probability of obtaining strictly double channeling and excludes the probability of obtaining triple channeling. the formula for obtaing AT LEAST double channeling is:

P(A) = 3*p^2 - 2*p^3 (i can explain how you get to this, but i don't wanna bother you with math if you don't wanna get involved with it)

As I'm guessing there's very few people who want to read what I've written above, here's the calculated probabilities for arcane gear:

Arcane robe - 1 in 232,7 tries for strictly double channeling; 1 in 229,6 tries for at least double channeling

Arcane pants - 1 in 193,6 tries for strictly double channeling; 1 in 190,8 tries for at least double channeling

Arcane boots - 1 in 353,45 tries for strictly double channeling; 1 in 349,7 tries for at least double channeling

Arcane wrists - 1 in 67,3 tries for strictly single channeling; 1 in 67,0 tries for at least single channeling

Edit: forgot to include wrists.

[eternalagony23]

You guys should note that this is basicly just luck based....there isn't a 100% formula that will tell you how many rolls you need to get this or that. For example lets say you think you need 1700 rolls on a Wrists to get 3x channelling, you could very well try 3.000 times and still not get it simply due to the random factor on the formula. This % to Rolls numbers isnt accurate at all.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[アイドンノウくん]

You guys should note that this is basicly just luck based....there isn't a 100% formula that will tell you how many rolls you need to get this or that.
For example lets say you think you need 1700 rolls on a Wrists to get 3x channelling, you could very well try 3.000 times and still not get it simply due to the random factor on the formula.
This % to Rolls numbers isnt accurate at all.

There is a formula that tells you how many rolls on average you need though. "On average" implies uncertainties.  
It is trivial to say there is no formula that tells how many rolls one needs without uncertainties, unless one knows the future. 

[Fab]

I got full -6 on my mage with less than 700 damas Hones included.