Randomness

[アイドンノウくん]

I see many people question about the randomness in this game. There are many random factors in this game, including but not limited to skills proc rates, crit, gof zerk, and accuracy. The question is whether or not they are truly random, which reflects their respective probabilities as we see in the game.

People need to be careful of pseudo-randomness. Random number generators in computers are generally programmed in a way such that they will always generate numbers in some patterns. In order to generate truly random numbers, complicated techniques and technologies need to be involved. Since, this game is old, and the server is probably operating based on its algorithms and programs, and not using other external independent factors to produce random numbers, it is quite likely that the randomness that we experience in the game is indeed pseudo.

And that probably helps explain why we are not experiencing the randomness that we expect to experience after knowing the probabilities. 

[Kizumbau]

I was going to post the exact same thing.

[Zhake]

Not sure why there is a thread on this, but ok.

TLDR: There is no such thing as randomness because it's all based on algorithms with variables mixed in (generally, the current time, or other variables that are constantly changing). True randomness is technically impossible as the same inputs will always lead to the same output.

TLDR: All of this doesn't matter because it's accurate enough to be translated into a skill's proc rate.

[アイドンノウくん]

Not sure why there is a thread on this, but ok.

TLDR: There is no such thing as randomness because it's all based on algorithms with variables mixed in (generally, the current time, or other variables that are constantly changing). True randomness is technically impossible as the same inputs will always lead to the same output.

TLDR: All of this doesn't matter because it's accurate enough to be translated into a skill's proc rate.

Interesting. There are many articles and research papers about randomness that you can read online. It is hard to conclude if true randomness exists. Quantum mechanics pretty much implies true randomness.

Even if it is pseudo randomness, there are degrees of pseudoness. There are ways to produce almost truly randomness using appropriate methodologies and sources. Although it does not mean it is truly random, it does mean the degree of pseudoness can be reduced to a point where it is almost truly random and can be regarded as truly random in scientific standard. It really depends on how sophisticated your program is, in terms of credibility and methodology to generate randomness.

It may be accurate enough to reflect skills' proc rates, but the degree of pseudoness does affect the randomness that we experience, since it generally follows some sort of patterns that have been embedded into the algorithms.

[Agatio]

Implementing true randomness is one of simplest things in any programming language, since it's one of most common functions for many programs, as simple as http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/beginner/152038/#msg790819
The proper randomizing functions are already built in the language, all you have to do is use it.

[Death]

Implementing true randomness is one of simplest things in any programming language, since it's one of most common functions for many programs, as simple as http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/beginner/152038/#msg790819
The proper randomizing functions are already built in the language, all you have to do is use it.

Do you think they were properly used in PWI? At times I have doubts, for example when for some time I make no crits at all and then I get like 10 in a row... 

[Bill Dipperly]

i doubt it too in the r8 reshape system but when you reshape your wrist at the morning/late morning times theres bigger chance of getting 3x int, same for x2 top at late late night more chance and it worked for like 20 people i know

[Аlex]

i doubt it too in the r8 reshape system but when you reshape your wrist at the morning/late morning times theres bigger chance of getting 3x int, same for x2 top at late late night more chance and it worked for like 20 people i know

i tried after Ares , around 6-7 pm (my time) and i got 2xint on top

[Nea]

i doubt it too in the r8 reshape system but when you reshape your wrist at the morning/late morning times theres bigger chance of getting 3x int, same for x2 top at late late night more chance and it worked for like 20 people i know

not rlly right
its still luck wise
just because people reshape more at a certain time doesnt make it more effective
if u take take amount of people making the reshapes for same stat, amount of successfull ones in 100 people u'll start to see that the numbers tend to go around that 'chance' that the game implemented

[アイドンノウくん]

not rlly right
its still luck wise
just because people reshape more at a certain time doesnt make it more effective
if u take take amount of people making the reshapes for same stat, amount of successfull ones in 100 people u'll start to see that the numbers tend to go around that 'chance' that the game implemented

He did not say there were more people reshaped their gears at those times. What he said was he knew more people who got the stats with extremely low chances when they reshaped at those times; it does not, however, imply that there were more people reshaped at those times.

And I doubt 100 people of sample size is enough to reflect the chances, given the chances of those stats are so low.

Perhaps another question, which I think will be more relevant to this topic should be asked:
Do you think a population of 100 people will have the equal chance to get a certain stat when they reshape in the morning or night, and at other times of the day?

[Agatio]

Perhaps another question, which I think will be more relevant to this topic should be asked:
Do you think a population of 100 people will have the equal chance to get a certain stat when they reshape in the morning or night, and at other times of the day?

it's a myth that the chance differs depending on the time

[Nea]

it's a myth that the chance differs depending on the time

different rituals that make u keep going after u spent 6k damas at once...

[アイドンノウくん]

it's a myth that the chance differs depending on the time

That is the way it is supposed to be. But we are not talking about just the chances to get stats from reshaping. There are many things, which are subject to randomness in this game. If you ask any archer, chances are they will tell you that SB tends to proc more often on dummy or non-player targets than on player targets. Again, this is just one of the examples that implicitly suggests that the proc rate of SB does, in some way, depend on its targets. However, due to the the 'rules' set by the algorithms, it will always reflect its probability when the number of trials gets large. At the end, it is all about how you experience the randomness which produces the same overall probability for an event, given some conditions.