Let's assume you wanted to nerf it, how would you go about this? It's obviously 100% at 140 strength points, and 30% at 0 strength points. You could nerf the initial value by x, but your 100% chance @ 140 points would be nerfed by x as well. You could nerf percent to point ratio, but it would cause the same thing as mentioned above. As we can clearly see that this isn't the case, I conclude that either
a)There's an error in game mechanics (highly unlikely)
b)There's a misunderstanding in how the chance is counted (unlikely)
c)You only remember unlucky strikes and don't notice when it works as you think it should. (very likely)
TL;DR: Occult ice hasn't been nerfed on this server.